Abstract
BACKGROUND: The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) is a validated clinical metric of insulin sensitivity that may predict cardiovascular health; however, the combined and interaction relationship between eGDR and genetic predisposition in determining atrial fibrillation (AF) risk remains unclear.</p>
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal relationship between eGDR and incident AF risk and assess the combined and interaction effect of eGDR and genetic predisposition on AF development.</p>
METHODS: In the UK Biobank, eGDR was calculated using waist circumference, hypertension status, and glycated hemoglobin levels. Genetic predisposition was assessed via a polygenic risk score (PRS) for AF. Associations were examined using Kaplan-Meier curves, restricted cubic spline models, and Cox regression.</p>
RESULTS: Among 431,572 participants with a median follow-up of 13.53 years, 29,464 AF cases were identified. Higher eGDR quartiles demonstrated significantly lower AF incidence (log-rank P < .001), with L-shaped nonlinear association (P nonlinear < .001). Each unit increase in eGDR was associated with a 9% reduction in AF risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-0.92; P < .001), with stepwise risk reduction across quartiles (Q4 vs Q1: HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.63-0.70; P < 0.001). Participants with low PRS and high eGDR exhibited 74% lower AF risk (HR 0.26; 95% CI 0.23-0.28; P < .001) than those with high PRS and low eGDR, indicating improved insulin sensitivity confers protection across all genetic risk categories.</p>
CONCLUSION: eGDR demonstrates dose-dependent protective effects against AF across all genetic risk categories, highlighting insulin resistance as a potential intervention target for AF prevention.</p>