| Title: | A model for projecting individuals' risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-risk Chinese population |
| Journal: | Gastroenterology Report |
| Published: | 20 Jan 2026 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42343955/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1093/gastro/goag049 |
Publication 20661
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Abstract
Background: Early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) may improve survival, but universal screening is not feasible. This study aimed to develop and validate a model for identifying individuals at high absolute risk of ESCC in a high-risk Chinese population.</p>
Methods: The model was developed by using data from a case-control study in Yanting County, Sichuan, China between 2011 and 2013, including 942 ESCC cases and 942 age- and sex-matched control participants. Conditional logistic regression and the Gail algorithm were used to construct the model. Model performance was assessed by using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 10-fold cross-validation. External validation was performed in two independent populations, i.e. another Chinese case-control study and the UK Biobank cohort.</p>
Results: The model included six risk factors: education level, marital status, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index (overweight status), and family history of cancer. The model incorporated age- and sex-specific incidence rates in the population to estimate the 5-year absolute risk. The AUC was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.74) in the derivation dataset and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69) after cross-validation. In external validation, the AUC was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.69) in the independent Chinese case-control study and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56-0.75) in UK Biobank. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC in the population in Yanting ranged from 0.0005% to 18.2%. In the group at the highest predicted risk, six individuals would need to undergo screening to detect one ESCC case within 5 years.</p>
Conclusion: The developed model demonstrated acceptable performance and has the potential to identify high-risk individuals for targeted prevention and early detection in the studied high-risk population.</p>
8 Authors
- Liyan Zhao
- Sihao Lin
- Yi Shen
- Xudong Liu
- Yan Wang
- Zhiqiang Liu
- Fen Liu
- Shao-Hua Xie
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 75905 | Systemic evaluation of the Associations of environmental factors with the risk of mortality and morbidity |
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