| Title: | Deaths potentially averted by small changes in physical activity and sedentary time: an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies |
| Journal: | The Lancet |
| Published: | 13 Jan 2026 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41544645/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(25)02219-6 |
Publication 18538
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effects of small, realistic changes in physical activity and sedentary behaviour on population-level mortality are unclear. We aimed to estimate the proportion of deaths preventable by 5-min and 10-min incremental increases in moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) and 30-min and 60-min reductions in daily sedentary time.</p>
METHODS: We did an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. We included studies with device-measured physical activity and sedentary time. We estimated the proportion of deaths prevented (potential impact fractions; PIFs) by changes in (1) the approximately 20% least active participants (high-risk approach) and (2) all participants except the approximately 20% most active (population-based approach). We calculated PIFs from adjusted hazard ratios estimated for 5-min and 10-min increases in MVPA and 30-min and 60-min reductions in sedentary time from observed levels across the activity distribution.</p>
FINDINGS: We included seven cohorts from Norway, Sweden, and the USA (n=40 327; 4895 deaths). Data from the UK Biobank (n=94 719; 3487 deaths) were analysed separately. A 5-min/day increase in MVPA in the least active participants might prevent 6·0% (95% CI 4·3-7·4) of all deaths. A similar increase in MVPA in all participants except the most active might prevent 10·0% (6·3-13·4) of all deaths. Reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day might prevent 3·0% (2·0-4·1) of all deaths in the high-risk approach and 7·3% (4·8-9·6) in the population-based approach. Results from the UK Biobank were of a smaller magnitude but still substantial-eg, reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day in all except the most active participants was associated with preventing 4·5% (2·8-6·1) of total deaths.</p>
INTERPRETATION: Small and realistic increases in MVPA of 5 min/day might prevent up to 6% of all deaths in a high-risk approach and 10% of all deaths in population-based approach. Reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day might prevent a smaller, but still meaningful, proportion of deaths in the two risk scenarios.</p>
FUNDING: None.</p>
13 Keywords
- Aged
- Exercise
- Female
- Humans
- Male
- Middle Aged
- Mortality
- Norway
- Prospective Studies
- Sedentary Behavior
- Sweden
- United Kingdom
- United States
20 Authors
- Ulf Ekelund
- Jakob Tarp
- Ding Ding
- Miguel Adriano Sanchez-Lastra
- Knut Eirik Dalene
- Sigmund A Anderssen
- Jostein Steene-Johannessen
- Bjorge H Hansen
- Bente Morseth
- Laila A Hopstock
- Edvard Sagelv
- Peter Nordström
- Anna Nordström
- Maria Hagströmer
- Ing-Mari Dohrn
- Keith M Diaz
- Steven Hooker
- Virginia J Howard
- I-Min Lee
- Morten W Fagerland
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 29717 | Advancing knowledge on physical activity and health through investigating interrelationships with lifestyle behaviours, fitness, and subclinical outcomes |
Enabling scientific discoveries that improve human health